Pambuyo pa Chaka Chatsopano cha China,rebarmitengo yam'tsogolo idatsika kwambiri kwa masiku awiri otsatizana a malonda, ndipo idakweranso m'masiku awiri otsatira, koma kufooka kwathunthu kudapambana.Pofika sabata ya February 23 (February 19-23), mgwirizano waukulu wa rebar unatsekedwa pa RMB 3,790 / tonne, kutsika RMB 64 / tonne, kapena 1.66%, poyerekeza ndi tsiku lomaliza la malonda Chaka Chatsopano cha China chisanafike (February 8th) .
Masabata a 2-3 otsatirawa, mawonekedwe amitengo ya rebar adzakhala momwe angawonetsere.Nkhaniyi ifotokoza mwachidule za ma macro ndi mafakitale.
Zifukwa za kuzungulira kwaposachedwa kwamitengo ya rebar?
Choyamba, kuyambira chaka cha kalendala, kusintha kwa msika wa malo pambuyo pa Chikondwerero cha Spring kwa masabata a 2 mpaka masabata a 3 kwenikweni kumakhala kosasunthika, pambuyo pa Chikondwerero cha Spring mvula yambiri ndi chipale chofewa m'dziko lonselo chinawonjezeranso kuchepa kwa msika.
Kachiwiri, pambuyo pa tchuthi cha Chikondwerero cha Spring, kugwiritsa ntchito coke ndi coking coking inventory of zitsulo mabizinesi anali otsika kwambiri kuposa momwe amayembekezera, ndipo zidziwitso zotumiza chitsulo pa Chikondwerero cha Spring zinali zokwera kwambiri kuposa momwe amayembekezera.Izi zidapangitsa kutsika mwachangu kwamitengo yamafuta, kutsegulira malo kuti rebar igwerenso.
Kachitatu, mphekesera zam'mbuyomu zapaintaneti kuti Yunnan adayimitsa ntchito yomanga mapulojekiti ena achepetsanso zomwe msika ukuyembekezeka pa ndondomekoyi pamlingo wina.
Chachinayi, kuchokera kumbali ya kutsidya kwa nyanja, deta ya January US CPI (Consumer Price Index) inaposa zomwe zinkayembekeza, kuphatikizapo ntchito zaposachedwapa za Federal Reserve, nthawi yochepetsera chiwongoladzanja kapena kuchedwa kwina.Izi zidapangitsa kuti zokolola za ma bond ku US zikhalebe zokwera, ndikuchepetsanso mitengo yamtsogolo yakuda.
Unyolo wamakampani ulibe malingaliro opitilira kuyankha koyipa kwakanthawi kochepa
Pambuyo pa Januwale, chifukwa cha kuchepetsa kupanikizika kwa chitetezo cha chilengedwe ndi gawo la kusintha kwa phindu la mabizinesi achitsulo, kutulutsa kwa mabizinesi achitsulo kwanthawi yayitali kunayambanso.Pofika sabata yatha Chikondwerero cha Spring chisanachitike (February 5-9), avareji yatsiku ndi tsiku yopanga zitsulo zamabizinesi 247 azitsulo padziko lonse lapansi idakweranso kwa milungu isanu yotsatizana, ndikuwonjezeranso matani 59,100.Sabata yatha (February 19-23), chifukwa cha kuchepa kwamitengo yachitsulo, mabizinesi achitsulo adawongolera kukula kwa gawo lakukula, ndipo pafupifupi tsiku lililonse kupanga chitsulo kunawoneka matani 10,400 akugwa.
Komanso, chifukwa cha magetsi ng'anjo zitsulo phindu akadali likupezeka, ngakhale pambuyo January yochepa ndondomeko rebar kupanga limasonyeza azimuth nyengo ya kuchepa, koma kuchepa ndi kochepa kwambiri kuposa nthawi yomweyi zaka zapitazo.Mu sabata yoyamba pambuyo pa Chaka Chatsopano cha China (19-23 February), kutulutsa kwakufupi kwa rebar kunali matani 21,500, kuwonjezeka kwa matani 0.25 miliyoni pachaka (kalendala yoyendera mwezi).
M'kanthawi kochepa, sabata yoyamba itatha Chikondwerero cha Spring chifukwa cha kuchepa kwakukulu kwamitengo yazitsulo, mabizinesi achitsulo kuti ayambirenso kupanga akuyembekezeka kufooketsa, ndipo unyolo wa mafakitale udawoneka wozungulira wamalingaliro oyipa.Komabe, ndikukhulupirira kuti msika wamakono ulibe mphamvu zosintha zosintha zolakwika.
Yang'anani pakufunika ndi kukhazikitsa ndondomeko pambuyo pa mwezi wa March
Lingaliro lomwe limayang'anira malonda amsika sabata yoyamba pambuyo pa Chikondwerero cha Spring makamaka ndi chiyembekezo chofooka komanso kutsika kwa mtengo wothandizira.Kuphatikizidwa ndi kusanthula m'mbuyomu, ndikukhulupirira kuti, pakalibe vuto lalikulu, mitengo yanthawi yayitali ya rebar yomwe imagwera pansi pa mtengo wamagetsi amagetsi amagetsi achitsulo m'chigwa sichingachitike.
Koma polowa mu Marichi, msika upereka chidwi kwambiri pakufuna komanso kukhazikika kwa mfundo.Zomwe zimafunidwa ndiye chizindikiritso chowoneka bwino kwambiri pazambiri zazinthu, ndipo chikuyenera kulabadira zomwe zili pamwamba pomwe zikuwonekera komanso pambuyo pa liwiro lotsitsa.Sabata yoyamba pambuyo pa Chikondwerero cha Spring, zosungirako zidakwera mpaka matani 11.8 miliyoni, kuchuluka kwazomwezi munthawi yomweyi m'mbiri ndizokwera kwambiri.Kuphatikizidwa ndi zenizeni zomwe zikusowa zofooka zamakono, ndikukhulupirira kuti kuthekera kwa kusonkhanitsa katundu mu theka loyamba la March ndipamwamba kuposa momwe amayembekezera.Ngati chiyembekezochi chikulemekezedwa, ndiye kuti chidzakhudza kwambiri zoyembekeza za msika.Pankhani ya ndondomekoyi, makamaka ikukhudzidwa ndi magawo awiri a National People's Congress chifukwa cha zizindikiro zofunika zachuma komanso kukhazikitsidwa kwa ndondomeko zomwe zingatheke, monga kukula kwa GDP, chiwerengero cha kuchepa kwa ndalama, ndi ndondomeko ya malo ogulitsa nyumba.
Kufotokozera mwachidule, pambuyo pa kugwa kwakukulu mu sabata yoyamba pambuyo pa Chikondwerero cha Spring, popanda kukhudzidwa kwatsopano, mitengo ya rebar ilibe mphamvu yopitilira kugwa kwambiri, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti pakapita nthawi yochepa ntchitoyo iwonongeke. Mtengo wa rebar wa 3730 rmb/tonne ~ 3950 rmb/tonne.pambuyo pa mwezi wa March, m'pofunika kuganizira zofuna ndi ndondomeko yofikira.
Nthawi yotumiza: Mar-01-2024